Kwimeko yomjikelo omtsha wenguqu yesayensi netekhnoloji kunye nokunyuka kobuzwe bezixhobo zehlabathi, ukunikezelwa kwamandla amatsha kuye kwehla, ngelixa amasimi asakhulayo esanda ngokuqhubekayo. Amacandelo anxulumene noko afana nezinto ze-fluorine, iikhemikhali ze-phosphorus, i-aramid kunye namanye amashishini kulindeleke ukuba aqhubeke. Ikwanethemba ngamathuba ayo ophuhliso.
Ishishini leekhemikhali zeFluorine: Indawo yemarike iyanda rhoqo
Ngowama-2022, ukusebenza kweenkampani ezidweliswe kwi-fluorochemical bekuqaqambile. Ngokwezibalo ezingaphelelanga, kwiikota ezintathu zokuqala, inzuzo epheleleyo yeenkampani ezingaphezu kwe-10 ezidweliswe kwi-fluorochemical inyukile unyaka nonyaka, kwaye inzuzo epheleleyo yezinye iinkampani inyukile ngaphezu kwezihlandlo ezi-6 ngonyaka. Ukusuka kwi-refrigerant ukuya kwizinto ezintsha ze-fluoride, ukuya kwiibhetri ezintsha ze-lithium yamandla, iimveliso zeekhemikhali ze-fluoride ziye zandisa ngokuqhubekayo indawo yazo yemarike ngeenzuzo zazo zokusebenza ezizodwa.
I-Fluorite yeyona nto ibalulekileyo esetyenziswa ngaphambili kwikhonkco leshishini le-fluorochemical. I-hydrofluoric acid eyenziwe ngezinto eziluhlaza sisiseko seshishini leekhemikhali zanamhlanje ze-fluorous. Njengesiseko sekhonkco lonke leshishini le-fluorochemical, i-hydrofluoric acid zizinto ezisisiseko zokwenza iimveliso zeekhemikhali ze-fluorine eziphakathi kunye nezisezantsi. Amashishini aphambili akwicandelo layo aquka i-refrigerant.
Ngokutsho kwe-“Montreal Protocol”, ngo-2024, ukuveliswa nokusetyenziswa kwezizukulwana ezithathu zeefriji kwilizwe lam kuya kuma kwinqanaba elisezantsi. Ingxelo yoPhando lweZakhiwo zaseYangtze ikholelwa ukuba emva kokuxakeka kwezabelo zeefriji zezizukulwana ezithathu, amashishini anokubuyela kwinqanaba lokubonelela elijolise ngakumbi kwimarike. Isabelo sefriji yezizukulwana ezithathu ngo-2024 samiswa ngokusemthethweni, kwaye isabelo esiqokelelweyo sefriji yesizukulwana sesibini ngo-2025 sancitshiswa ngama-67.5%. Kulindeleke ukuba kuzise umsantsa wokubonelela weetoni ezili-140,000 ngonyaka. Ngokuphathelele imfuno, ukuqina kweshishini lezindlu kusasekho. Phantsi kokuphuculwa kokuthintela nokulawula ubhubhane, amashishini afana nezixhobo zasekhaya anokubuyela kancinci kancinci. Kulindeleke ukuba izizukulwana ezithathu zeefriji kulindeleke ukuba zibuyele umva ukusuka ezantsi kwempumelelo.
I-China Business Industry Research Institute iqikelela ukuba ngophuhliso olukhawulezileyo lwamandla amatsha, izithuthi zamandla amatsha, ii-semiconductors, ii-elektroniki, kunye namashishini ezonyango, ii-intermediates ezine-fluorine, i-monomer ekhethekileyo ye-fluoride, i-fluoride coolant, uhlobo olutsha lwe-arhente yokucima umlilo ene-fluorine, njl. Uphuhliso lweentlobo ezintsha zobuchwepheshe beekhemikhali ezintle ezine-fluorine luqhubekile nokukhula. Indawo yemarike yala mashishini asezantsi iyaqhubeka nokwandiswa, nto leyo eya kuzisa iindawo ezintsha zokukhula kwishishini leekhemikhali ezine-fluorine.
I-China Galaxy Securities kunye ne-Guosen Securities zikholelwa ukuba izixhobo zeekhemikhali eziphezulu kulindeleke ukuba ziqhubeke nokunyusa izinga lokusetyenziswa kwazo, zinethemba malunga neepleyiti ze-fluorite ezifana ne-fluorite-refrigerant.
Ishishini leekhemikhali zephosphorus: Ububanzi bokusetyenziswa kwe-downstream buyandiswa
Ngowama-2022, echatshazelwe lutshintsho lwesakhiwo kwicala lokubonelela kunye "nolawulo oluphindwe kabini" lokusetyenziswa kwamandla, amandla amatsha okuvelisa iimveliso zeekhemikhali ze-phosphorus anomthamo omncinci wokuvelisa kunye namaxabiso aphezulu, nto leyo ebeka isiseko sokusebenza kwecandelo leekhemikhali ze-phosphorus.
I-phosphate ore yeyona nto iphambili kwikhonkco leshishini leekhemikhali ze-phosphate. Eli candelo liquka isichumiso se-phosphate, i-phosphate yokutya, i-lithium iron phosphate kunye nezinye iimveliso. Phakathi kwazo, i-lithium iron phosphate lolona didi luphumeleleyo kwikhonkco leshishini leekhemikhali ze-phosphate langoku.
Kuyaqondakala ukuba itoni nganye ye-1 ye-iron phosphate iveliswa ziitoni eziyi-0.5 ~ 0.65, kunye neetoni eziyi-0.8 ze-ammonium phosphate enye. Ukukhula okukhawulezayo kwemfuno ye-lithium iron phosphate kuluhlu lwemizi-mveliso ukuya kwi-upstream transmission kuya kwandisa imfuno ye-phosphate ore kwicandelo lamandla amatsha. Kwinkqubo yokwenyani yemveliso, ibhetri ye-1gWh lithium iron phosphate ifuna iitoni ezingama-2500 zezinto ze-lithium iron phosphate orthopedic, ezihambelana neetoni eziyi-1440 ze-phosphate (ukugoba, oko kukuthi, i-P2O5 = 100%). Kuqikelelwa ukuba ngo-2025, imfuno ye-iron phosphate iya kufikelela kwiitoni eziyi-1.914 yezigidi, kwaye imfuno ehambelanayo ye-phosphate ore iya kuba ziitoni eziyi-1.11 yezigidi, ezimalunga ne-4.2% yemfuno iyonke ye-phosphate ore.
Ingxelo yoPhando lweGuosen Securities ikholelwa ukuba izinto ezininzi eziquka amaqela amaninzi ziya kukhuthaza ngokudibeneyo ukuchuma okuphezulu okuqhubekayo kwekhonkco leshishini leekhemikhali ze-phosphorus. Ngokwembono yokunyuka, kwimeko yokwanda komda wokungena kweshishini kwixesha elizayo kunye noxinzelelo oluphezulu lokukhuselwa kwendalo, icala lokubonelela liya kuqhubeka liqina, kwaye iimpawu zokunqongophala kwezixhobo ziyabonakala. Amaxabiso amandla angaphandle atshintshile anyukile ukukhuthaza iindleko eziphezulu zeekhemikhali ze-phosphorus kwamanye amazwe, kwaye inzuzo yeendleko zamashishini afanelekileyo asekhaya ibonakele. Ukongeza, ingxaki yehlabathi yengqolowa kunye nomjikelo wokuchuma kwezolimo kuya kukhuthaza imfuno ephezulu yesichumiso se-phosphate; ukukhula okukhulu kweebhetri ze-iron phosphate kukwabonelela ngokunyuka okubalulekileyo kwemfuno ye-phosphate ore.
I-Capital Securities ithe unobangela oyintloko womjikelo omtsha wokunyuka kwamaxabiso ezixhobo zehlabathi ngumjikelo womthamo wemveliso, kubandakanya ukusetyenziswa kwemali okungonelanga kwiminyaka emi-5-10 edlulileyo yezixhobo zezimbiwa, kubandakanya ukungabikho kwenkcitho yemali kwiminyaka emi-5-10 edlulileyo, kwaye ukukhululwa kwamandla amatsha kuya kuthatha ixesha elide. Uxinzelelo lonyaka lokunikezelwa kwe-phosphorus ore kunzima ukuluphelisa.
Ii-securities zomthombo ovulekileyo zikholelwa ukuba indlela entsha yamandla iqhubekile nokuchuma okukhulu kwaye ibinethemba malunga nezinto eziphuma phezulu ezifana neekhemikhali ze-phosphorus ixesha elide.
I-Aramid：Ubuchule bokwenza ishishini likhule ngokukhawuleza
Ngenxa yophuhliso olukhawulezileyo lweshishini lolwazi, i-aramid iye yatsala ingqalelo ngakumbi kwimarike yemali.
I-Aramid fiber yenye yeefayibha ezintathu ezisebenza kakuhle kwihlabathi liphela. Iqukwe kushishino olukhulayo lwesizwe kwaye ikwayindlela yokuxhasa ilizwe ixesha elide. Ngo-Epreli 2022, uMphathiswa wezoShishino noLwazi lweTekhnoloji kunye neKhomishini yoPhuhliso noHlaziyo yeSizwe bacebise ukuba kuyimfuneko ukuphucula umgangatho wemveliso yefayibha esebenza kakuhle kwaye baxhase ukusetyenziswa kwe-aramid kwicandelo eliphezulu.
I-aramid ineendlela ezimbini ezakhelweyo ze-aramid kunye ne-medium, kwaye eyona ndawo iphambili ibandakanya amashishini eentambo zefayibha. Idatha ibonisa ukuba ngo-2021, ubungakanani bemarike ye-aramid yehlabathi yayiyi-US $ 3.9 yeebhiliyoni, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba inyuke iye kwi-US $ 6.3 yeebhiliyoni ngo-2026, kunye nezinga lokukhula lonyaka elidibeneyo le-9.7%.
Kwiminyaka yakutshanje, ishishini leentambo ze-optical fiber laseTshayina likhule ngokukhawuleza kwaye liye lafika kwindawo yokuqala ehlabathini. Ngokwezibalo ezivela kwiSebe lezoShishino kunye neTekhnoloji yoLwazi, ubude obupheleleyo bomgca wentambo ye-optical yesizwe ngo-2021 bufikelele kwi-54.88 yezigidi zeekhilomitha, kwaye imfuno yeemveliso ze-aramid eziphezulu yayisondele kwiitoni ezingama-4,000, apho ama-90% azo asaxhomekeke ekuthengisweni kwamanye amazwe. Ukususela kwisiqingatha sokuqala sika-2022, ubude obupheleleyo bomgca wentambo ye-optical yesizwe bufikelele kwi-57.91 yezigidi zeekhilomitha, ukwanda kwe-8.2% ngonyaka.
IYangtze Securities, iHuaxin Securities, kunye neGuosen Securities zikholelwa ukuba ngokwendlela ezisetyenziswa ngayo, imigangatho yezixhobo zokuzikhusela eziphakathi kwe-aramid iya kuqhubeka kancinci kancinci, kwaye imfuno ye-aramid kwicandelo lonxibelelwano lwe-optical kunye nerabha iya kuhlala iqinile. Ukongeza, imfuno yemarike yemarike yokugquma i-lithium-electrodermilida ibanzi. Ngokukhawuleziswa kweendlela zasekhaya ze-aramid, inqanaba lokwenziwa kwekhaya kwixesha elizayo kulindeleke ukuba linyuke kakhulu, kwaye amasheya afanelekileyo afanele ukuqwalaselwa.
Ixesha lokuthumela: Jan-10-2023