Unyaka wama-2023 uyangena. Ngokulungiswa kwemigaqo-nkqubo yokuthintela nokulawula ubhubhane, amandla emilinganiselo yokuzinzisa ukukhula kunye nesiphumo esisezantsi, amaziko ophando amaninzi aqikelela ukuba ukukhula kwe-GDP yaseTshayina kuya kuphinda kuphindeke kakhulu kulo nyaka.Njengoshishino lwentsika kuqoqosho lwelizwe, ishishini lemichiza lidibanisa izibonelelo ezahlukeneyo kunye namandla avela phezulu, ngelixa umlambo osezantsi uhambelana ngqo neemfuno zemihla ngemihla zabantu.Ngo-2023, ishishini lemichiza kufuneka liqwalasele ukuguquguquka komjikelo we-inventri kunye nokutshintsha umkhondo, zeziphi iindawo eziya kuba zezona zinamandla kwi-tuyere eyinkunzi?Ukuze ukwanelise abafundi, izicwangciso ze-petroleum kunye neekhemikhali zotyalo-mali kwiinkampani zokhuseleko ezifana ne-Huaxin Securities, i-New Century Securities, i-Changjiang Securities kunye ne-China Merchants Securities ziya kulungiswa ngokubanzi.
INkomfa yoMsebenzi wezoQoqosho yamva nje ichaze ngokucacileyo ukuba kufuneka kwenziwe iinzame zokwandisa imfuno yasekhaya, kwaye uhlengahlengiso lwakutsha nje lomgaqo-nkqubo wolawulo lobhubhane lukhawulezise ukubuyiswa kweemarike zabathengi basekhaya.Ngaphantsi kolindelo olubanzi, inani lee-brokerages likholelwa ukuba: Ngo-2023, imfuno yemveliso yeekhemikhali kulindeleke ukuba iphinde ikhule, kwaye ipleyiti entsha yekhemikhali ebandakanyekayo ekuphuculeni amandla amatsha, ukugcinwa kwamandla, isemiconductor kunye neshishini lezomkhosi lisaza kuqhubeka. ukugcina ishishini eliphezulu.Phakathi kwazo, izixhobo ze-semiconductor, izinto ze-photovoltaic, izinto ze-lithium kunye nokunye zifaneleke ngokukhethekileyo ingqalelo yabatyalo-mali.
Imathiriyeli yeSemiconductor: thatha ithuba lokutshintshwa kwasekhaya ukukhawulezisa inkqubela
Ngo-2022, ngenxa yokusingqongileyo koqoqosho lwehlabathi kunye nokuguquguquka komjikelo wokuchuma kweshishini kunye nempembelelo ephindaphindiweyo yobhubhane, ishishini lombane lilonke lijongene noxinzelelo oluthile lokusebenza.Kodwa ngokubanzi, ishishini le-semiconductor laseTshayina lisakhula.
INgxelo yoPhando lweGuoxin Securities Research ibonise ukuba izinga lokwenziwa kwasekhaya kwemathiriyeli ye-semiconductor kwilizwe lam lalimalunga ne-10% kuphela ngo-2021, kwaye lalivinjwe amathuba ngokodidi lobutyebi kunye nokhuphiswano.Nangona kunjalo, ekuhambeni kwexesha, ushishino lwesekethe oluhlangeneyo lwelizwe lam luya kuqalisa kwindlela yokusungula izinto ezizimeleyo.Kulindeleke ukuba izinto zasekhaya kunye nezixhobo zinokufumana izibonelelo ezininzi kunye namathuba, kwaye umjikelo ongomnye wasekhaya kulindeleke ukuba ufinyeze.
Kwiminyaka yakutshanje, imfuno yezicelo ze-semiconductor kunye neemarike zabathengi ziye zanda ngokuthe ngcembe.Ngo-2021, intengiso ye-semiconductor yehlabathi ifikelele kwi-555.9 yeebhiliyoni zeedola zaseMelika, ukonyuka kwe-US $ 45.5 yebhiliyoni ngo-2020;kulindeleke ukuba iqhubeke ikhula ngo-2022, kwaye ukuthengiswa kwe-semiconductor kuya kufikelela kwi-US $ 601.4 billion.Zininzi iintlobo zemathiriyeli ye-semiconductor, kwaye ezona zithathu ziphezulu kwisabelo semarike ziziphaluka zesilicon, iigesi, kunye nokubumba ukukhanya.Ukongeza, isabelo semarike solwelo lokupholisha kunye neepads zokupholisha, i-lithography adhesive reagents, i-lithography, iikhemikhali ezimanzi, kunye neethagethi ze-sputtering yi-7.2%, 6.9%, 6.1%, 4.0%, kunye ne-3.0%, ngokulandelanayo.
I-Guangfa Securities Research Report ikholelwa ukuba ukusika kwintsimi yezinto eziphathekayo ze-semiconductor (iikhemikhali ze-elektroniki) ngophando olungapheliyo kunye nophuhliso okanye ukudibanisa kunye nokufunyanwa ngumzekelo oqhelekileyo kumashishini ekhemikhali afuna inguqu kwiminyaka yamuva.Ngelixa iinkampani zenguqu eziyimpumelelo zinokufumana amaxabiso aphezulu emarike ngelixa zifumana ishishini elikhawulezayo, singenise iliza lokukhula kabini.Kumaza ophuhliso olukhawulezayo lweshishini lasekhaya le-semiconductor, iinkampani zemathiriyeli ezinxulumene nazo zingenise ithuba elihle lokutshintshwa kwasekhaya.Ezinye iinkampani ezinamandla amakhulu e-R & D kunye namanqanaba omthengi aphumeleleyo, kunye nokuguqulwa kwemveliso eyimpumelelo kunye nokuphucula kulindeleke ukuba babelane ngophuhliso olukhawulezayo lweshishini le-semiconductor.
I-Ping An Securities Research inika ingxelo yokuba zininzi izinto ezinje nge "silicon cycle" kunye ne-macroeconomic cycles, kwaye ishishini le-semiconductor kulindeleke ukuba lihle ngo-2023.
INgxelo yoPhando lwezoKhuseleko lwaseNtshona ikholelwa ukuba ukonyuka kulawulo lwe-US lokuthumela ngaphandle kuya kukhawulezisa enye indlela yasekhaya yemathiriyeli ye-semiconductor.Banethemba malunga nemathiriyeli ye-semiconductor, amacandelo kunye nezixhobo ezinxulumeneyo, kunye nemarike ye-silicon carbide.
I-Photovoltaic Material: Iibhiliyoni ezilishumi-inqanaba lemarike ye-POE ilindele ukugqobhoza
Ngo-2022, phantsi kokukhuthazwa komgaqo-nkqubo welizwe lam, inani lofakelo olutsha kwimboni ye-photovoltaic yasekhaya landa kakhulu, kwaye imfuno yefilimu ye-photovoltaic glue nayo yanda.
Ifilimu yeglue ye-Photovoltaic izinto eziluhlaza zohlulwe zibe ziindidi ezimbini: i-ethylene -ethyl acetate yoluntu (EVA) kunye ne-polyolefin elastomer (POE).I-EVA, njengeyona nto ikhoyo ngoku i-raw material ye-photovoltaic glue ifilimu, inezinga eliphezulu lokuxhomekeka kwamanye amazwe, kwaye inendawo enkulu yendawo yokuhlala kwixesha elizayo.Ngelo xesha, kulindeleke ukuba imfuno ye-EVA kwintsimi yefilimu yeglue photovoltaic kwilizwe lam kwi-2025 inokufikelela kwi-45.05%.
Enye imathiriyeli ekrwada ye-POE inokusetyenziswa kwi-photovoltaic, iimoto, iintambo, ugwebu, izixhobo zasekhaya kunye namanye amacandelo.Okwangoku, ifilimu yeglue yokupakisha i-photovoltaic ibe yindawo enkulu yesicelo se-POE.Ngokutsho kwe "China Photovoltaic Industry Development Map Map (2021 Edition)", inxalenye yemarike yefilimu yeglue ye-POE yasekhaya kunye nefilimu yeglue ye-foam (EPE) ngo-2021 inyuke ukuya kwi-23.1%.Kwiminyaka yakutshanje, ngokunyuka okuqhubekayo ekuphumeni kwamacandelo e-photovoltaic kwilizwe lam kunye nokungena okuqhubekayo kwe-POE kwifilimu yeglue photovoltaic, imfuno ye-POE yasekhaya iye yanda ngokukhawuleza.
Nangona kunjalo, ngenxa yokuba inkqubo yokuvelisa i-POE inezithintelo eziphezulu, okwangoku, iinkampani zasekhaya azikho amandla e-POE, kwaye yonke i-POE yokusetyenziswa kwilizwe lam ixhomekeke ekuthengisweni kwamanye amazwe.Ukusukela ngo-2017, amashishini asekhaya aphuhlise ngokulandelelana iimveliso ze-POE.I-Wanhua Chemical, i-Oriental Shenghong, i-Rongsheng Petrochemical, i-Satellite Chemistry kunye namanye amashishini abucala kulindeleke ukuba afezekise ukutshintshwa kwe-POE yasekhaya kwixesha elizayo.
Izinto zebhetri yeLithium: ukuthunyelwa kwezinto ezine eziphambili kuye kwandiswa ngakumbi
Ngo-2022, imoto entsha yaseTshayina kunye ne-lithium yokugcina amandla ebhetri ye-lithium yahlala iphezulu, iqhuba ukuthunyelwa kwezinto zebhetri ye-lithium ukunyuka kakhulu.Ngokutsho kwedatha ye-China Automobile Association, ukususela ngoJanuwari ukuya kuNovemba ka-2022, ukuveliswa kunye nokuthengiswa kwezithuthi zasekhaya zamandla amatsha zagqitywa i-6.253 yezigidi kunye ne-6.067 yezigidi, ngokulandelanayo, ukunyuka konyaka-ngonyaka, kunye nesabelo semarike sifikelele kwi-25%.
I-High-Tech Industry Research Institute (GGII) kulindeleke ukuba ithengise ngaphezu kwe-6.7 yezigidi zeentengiso zezithuthi zasekhaya zamandla amatsha ngo-2022;kulindeleke ukuba imarike yemoto entsha yaseTshayina iya kudlula i-9 yezigidi ngo-2023. Ngo-2022, izinga lokukhula kwebhetri ye-lithium yaseTshayina kulindeleke ukuba lidlule kwi-100%, izinga lokukhula lokuthunyelwa kwebhetri yamandla kulindeleke ukuba lidlule kwi-110%, kunye nesantya sokukhula. Ukuthunyelwa kwebhetri ye-lithium yokugcina amandla kudlula i-150%.Ukukhula okuphawulekayo kokuthunyelwa kwebhetri ye-lithium kuye kwaqhuba izinto ezine eziphambili zezinto ezilungileyo, ezimbi, i-diaphragm, i-electrolyte, kunye nezinye izinto zebhetri ze-lithium ezifana ne-lithium hexfluorophosphate kunye ne-foil yobhedu kwiidigri ezahlukeneyo.
Idatha ibonisa ukuba kwisiqingatha sokuqala se-2022, i-China Lithium Electric Materials yathumela iitoni ezingama-770,000, ukwanda kwe-62% ngonyaka;Ukuthunyelwa kwemathiriyeli ye-electrode engalunganga ibe ziitoni ezingama-540,000, ukwanda ngama-68% ngonyaka-ngonyaka;55%;Ukuthunyelwa kwe-electrolyte bekungama-330,000 eetoni, ukwanda ngama-63% ngonyaka.Lilonke, ngo-2022, ukuhanjiswa kukonke kwebhetri enkulu ye-lithium e-China yahlala iyindlela yokukhula.
I-GGII iqikelela ukuba imarike yebhetri ye-lithium yasekhaya iya kudlula i-1TWh ngo-2023. Phakathi kwabo, ukuthunyelwa kwebhetri yamandla kulindeleke ukuba kudlule i-800GWh, kwaye ukuthunyelwa kwebhetri yokugcina amandla kuya kudlula i-180GWh, eya kuqhuba ukuthunyelwa ngokubanzi kweebhetri ezine ze-lithium ezinkulu ukunyusa ngakumbi. .
Nangona amaxabiso e-lithium ore kunye netyuwa ye-lithium awela ngoDisemba 2022. Nangona kunjalo, emehlweni abadayisi, oku kubangelwa ikakhulu kwi-off-season effect, kwaye "i-inflection point" yamaxabiso e-lithium ayikafiki.
I-Huaxi Securities ikholelwa ukuba ukuguquguquka kwexabiso letyuwa ye-lithium kukuguquguquka okuqhelekileyo kwexesha eliphakamileyo loshishino, kungekhona "i-inflection point".I-Shen Wanhongyuan Securities ikwakholelwa ukuba ngokuphinda kukhululwe amandla okuvelisa izinto ekrwada ngo-2023, umkhwa wenzuzo yekhonkco loshishino lwebhetri ye-lithium iya kuqhubeka ukusuka phezulu ukuya ezantsi.I-Zhejiang Business Securities ikholelwa ukuba ukuvuma okuncinci kwezixhobo ze-lithium kukhulu kunokuba kufunwa kwisiqingatha sesibini se-2023.
Ixesha lokuposa: Jan-10-2023