Unyaka ka-2023 uyangena. Ngokuphuculwa kwemigaqo-nkqubo yokuthintela nokulawula ubhubhane, amandla eendlela zokuzinzisa ukukhula kunye nesiphumo esisezantsi, amaziko ophando aliqela aqikelela ukuba ukukhula kwe-GDP yaseTshayina unyaka nonyaka kuya kunyuka kakhulu kulo nyaka. Njengeshishini eliyintsika yoqoqosho lwesizwe, ishishini leekhemikhali lidibanisa izixhobo ezahlukeneyo kunye namandla phezulu, ngelixa elisezantsi linxulumene ngokuthe ngqo neemfuno zemihla ngemihla zabantu. Ngo-2023, ishishini leekhemikhali kufuneka liqwalasele zombini ukuguquguquka komjikelo wempahla kunye nokutshintsha kwendlela, ngoko ke zeziphi iindawo eziya kuba yi-tuyere enamandla kakhulu? Ukuze kwaneliswe abafundi, amaqhinga otyalo-mali lwepetroleum kunye neekhemikhali eenkampani zezabelo ezifana neHuaxin Securities, iNew Century Securities, iChangjiang Securities kunye neChina Merchants Securities ziya kulungiswa ngokupheleleyo.
INkomfa yoMsebenzi wezoQoqosho oluPhakathi yakutshanje icacisile ukuba kufuneka kwenziwe imizamo yokwandisa imfuno yasekhaya, kwaye ukulungiswa kwakutshanje komgaqo-nkqubo wokulawula ubhubhane kukhawulezise ukubuyiselwa kwemarike yabathengi basekhaya. Phantsi kolindelo olupheleleyo, inani leenkampani ezithengisa izinto ezithengiswayo zikholelwa ukuba: Ngo-2023, imfuno yeemveliso ezithile zeekhemikhali kulindeleke ukuba ibuyisele ukukhula, kwaye ipleyiti entsha yezinto zeekhemikhali ezibandakanyekayo ekuphuculweni kwamandla amatsha, ukugcinwa kwamandla, i-semiconductor kunye neshishini lezomkhosi ziya kuhlala ziqhuba ishishini eliphezulu. Phakathi kwazo, izinto ze-semiconductor, izinto ze-photovoltaic, izinto ze-lithium njalo njalo zifanele ingqalelo yabatyali-mali.
Izixhobo ze-semiconductor: sebenzisa ithuba lokutshintshwa kwekhaya ukuze ukhawulezise inkqubela phambili
Ngowama-2022, ngenxa yemeko-bume yoqoqosho lwehlabathi kunye nokuguquguquka komjikelo wokuchuma kweshishini kunye nempembelelo ephindaphindiweyo yobhubhane, lonke ishishini le-elektroniki lajongana noxinzelelo oluthile lokusebenza. Kodwa ngokubanzi, ishishini le-semiconductor laseTshayina lisakhula.
Ingxelo yoPhando lweGuoxin Securities ibonise ukuba izinga lokusetyenziswa kwezixhobo ze-semiconductor kwilizwe lam lalimalunga ne-10% kuphela ngo-2021, kwaye laliphantsi ngokwexabiso kunye nokukhuphisana. Nangona kunjalo, ekuhambeni kwexesha, ishishini leesekethe ezidibeneyo zelizwe lam liza kuqalisa indlela yokuvelisa izinto ezintsha ngokuzimeleyo. Kulindeleke ukuba izixhobo zasekhaya kunye nezixhobo zinokufumana izixhobo kunye namathuba amaninzi, kwaye umjikelo wezinye izixhobo zasekhaya kulindeleke ukuba ufutshane.
Kwiminyaka yakutshanje, imfuno yezicelo ze-semiconductor kunye neemarike zabathengi ikhule ngokuthe chu. Ngo-2021, intengiso ye-semiconductor yehlabathi ifikelele kwi-555.9 yeebhiliyoni zeedola zaseMelika, ukunyuka kwe-US $ 45.5 yeebhiliyoni ngaphezulu kowama-2020; kulindeleke ukuba iqhubeke ikhula ngo-2022, kwaye intengiso ye-semiconductor iya kufikelela kwi-US $ 601.4 yeebhiliyoni zeedola. Kukho iintlobo ezininzi zezixhobo ze-semiconductor, kwaye ezintathu eziphezulu kwisabelo semarike zii-silicon wafers, iigesi, kunye nokubumba okukhanyayo. Ukongeza, isabelo semarike se-polishing fluid kunye ne-polishing pads, ii-lithography adhesive reagents, i-lithography, iikhemikhali ezimanzi, kunye neethagethi ze-sputtering yi-7.2%, 6.9%, 6.1%, 4.0%, kunye ne-3.0%, ngokwahlukeneyo.
Ingxelo yoPhando lweZibambiso zaseGuangfa ikholelwa ekubeni ukunqumla kwicandelo lezixhobo ze-semiconductor (iikhemikhali ze-elektroniki) ngophando oluvela emvelweni kunye nophuhliso okanye ukudibana kunye nokuthengwa kolwandiso yimodeli eqhelekileyo kwiinkampani zeekhemikhali ezifuna utshintsho kwiminyaka yakutshanje. Ngelixa iinkampani eziphumeleleyo zotshintsho zinokufumana ixabiso eliphezulu kwimarike ngelixa zifumana ishishini elikhawulezayo, sizise igagasi lokukhula kabini. Kwigagasi lophuhliso olukhawulezayo lweshishini le-semiconductor lasekhaya, iinkampani zezinto ezinxulumene nazo zikwazise ithuba elihle lokutshintshwa kwekhaya. Ezinye iinkampani ezinamandla ophando nophuhliso kunye namanqanaba abathengi abaphumeleleyo, kunye nokuguqulwa kunye nokuphuculwa kwemveliso okuphumelelayo kulindeleke ukuba zabelane ngophuhliso olukhawulezayo lweshishini le-semiconductor.
I-Ping An Securities Research ibika ukuba kukho izinto ezininzi ezifana "nomjikelo we-silicon" kunye nemijikelo yezoqoqosho, kwaye ishishini le-semiconductor kulindeleke ukuba lifikelele esiphelweni ngo-2023.
Ingxelo yoPhando lwezoKhuseleko lwaseNtshona ikholelwa ukuba ukwanda kolawulo lokuthumela ngaphandle e-US kuya kukhawulezisa ukhetho lwasekhaya lwezinto ze-semiconductor. Banethemba ngezixhobo ze-semiconductor, izinto kunye nezixhobo ezinxulumene noko, kunye nemarike ye-silicon carbide.
Izinto ze-Photovoltaic: Imakethi ye-POE ye-10 yeebhiliyoni ilinde ukugqobhoza
Ngowama-2022, phantsi kokukhuthazwa komgaqo-nkqubo welizwe lam, inani lokufakelwa okutsha kwishishini le-photovoltaic lasekhaya landa kakhulu, kwaye imfuno yefilimu yeglue ye-photovoltaic nayo yanda.
Izinto ezisetyenziswa kwifilimu yeglue ye-photovoltaic zahlulwe zibe ziintlobo ezimbini: i-ethylene-ethyl acetate community (EVA) kunye ne-polyolefin elastomer (POE). I-EVA, njengezinto ezisetyenziswa kwifilimu yeglue ye-photovoltaic ngoku, ixhomekeke kakhulu ekungenisweni kwamanye amazwe, kwaye inendawo enkulu yokufikelela kwindawo ethile kwixesha elizayo. Kwangaxeshanye, kulindeleke ukuba imfuno ye-EVA kwicandelo lefilimu yeglue ye-photovoltaic kwilizwe lam ngo-2025 inokufikelela kwi-45.05%.
Enye into eqhelekileyo esetyenziswa kwi-POE ingasetyenziswa kwi-photovoltaic, kwiimoto, kwiintambo, kwi-foam, kwizixhobo zasekhaya nakwezinye iindawo. Okwangoku, ifilimu yeglue yokupakisha i-photovoltaic iye yaba yindawo enkulu yokusetyenziswa kwi-POE. Ngokwe-"China Photovoltaic Industry Development Road Map (2021 Edition)", inani lemarike yefilimu yeglue ye-POE yasekhaya kunye nefilimu yeglue ye-foam polyethylene (EPE) ngo-2021 inyuke yaya kwi-23.1%. Kwiminyaka yakutshanje, ngokunyuka okuqhubekayo kwemveliso yezinto ze-photovoltaic kwilizwe lam kunye nokungena okuqhubekayo kwe-POE kwifilimu yeglue ye-photovoltaic, imfuno ye-POE yasekhaya ikhule ngokuthe chu.
Nangona kunjalo, ngenxa yokuba inkqubo yokuvelisa i-POE inemiqobo ephezulu, okwangoku, iinkampani zasekhaya azinawo amandla e-POE, kwaye lonke ukusetyenziswa kwe-POE kwilizwe lam kuxhomekeke ekungenisweni kwempahla kwamanye amazwe. Ukususela ngo-2017, amashishini asekhaya aye aphuhlisa iimveliso ze-POE ngokulandelelana. I-Wanhua Chemical, i-Oriental Shenghong, i-Rongsheng Petrochemical, i-Satellite Chemistry kunye namanye amashishini abucala kulindeleke ukuba afumane indawo ye-POE yasekhaya kwixesha elizayo.
Izixhobo zebhetri yeLithium: ukuthunyelwa kwezinto ezine eziphambili kuye kwanda ngakumbi
Ngowama-2022, imakethi yokugcina amandla ezithuthi zamandla ezintsha zaseTshayina kunye nebhetri ye-lithium yahlala iphezulu, nto leyo eyabangela ukuba ukuthunyelwa kwezixhobo zebhetri ye-lithium kwande kakhulu. Ngokwedatha ye-China Automobile Association, ukususela ngoJanuwari ukuya kuNovemba ka-2022, imveliso kunye nokuthengiswa kwezithuthi zamandla ezintsha zasekhaya kugqibe i-6.253 yezigidi kunye ne-6.067 yezigidi, ngokwahlukeneyo, ukunyuka okuphakathi konyaka nonyaka, kwaye isabelo semarike sifikelele kwi-25%.
I-High-Tech Industry Research Institute (GGII) kulindeleke ukuba ithengise ngaphezulu kwe-6.7 yezigidi zeentengiso zezithuthi zasekhaya zamandla amatsha ngo-2022; kulindeleke ukuba imakethi yezithuthi zamandla amatsha zaseTshayina iya kudlula kwi-9 yezigidi ngo-2023. Ngo-2022, izinga lokukhula kokuthunyelwa kwebhetri ye-lithium eTshayina kulindeleke ukuba lidlule kwi-100%, izinga lokukhula kokuthunyelwa kwebhetri yamandla kulindeleke ukuba lidlule kwi-110%, kwaye izinga lokukhula kokuthunyelwa kwebhetri ye-lithium yokugcina amandla lidlula kwi-150%. Ukukhula okubalulekileyo kokuthunyelwa kwebhetri ye-lithium kuqhubele phambili izixhobo ezine eziphambili ze-positive, negative, diaphragm, electrolyte, kunye nezinye izixhobo zebhetri ye-lithium ezifana ne-lithium hexfluorophosphate kunye ne-copper foil ukuya kumanqanaba ahlukeneyo.
Idatha ibonisa ukuba kwisiqingatha sokuqala sowama-2022, izixhobo zombane ze-China Lithium Electric Electronic Materials zithumele iitoni ezingama-770,000, ukwanda kwe-62% ngonyaka; ukuthunyelwa kwezinto ze-electrode ezingalunganga bekuziitoni ezingama-540,000, ukwanda kwe-68% ngonyaka; 55%; ukuthunyelwa kwe-electrolyte bekuziitoni ezingama-330,000, ukwanda kwe-63% ngonyaka. Lilonke, ngo-2022, ukuthunyelwa ngokubanzi kwebhetri ye-lithium ezine eziphambili eTshayina kwahlala kuyindlela yokukhula.
I-GGII iqikelela ukuba imakethi yebhetri ye-lithium yasekhaya iya kudlula i-1TWh ngo-2023. Phakathi kwazo, ukuthunyelwa kwebhetri yamandla kulindeleke ukuba kudlule i-800GWh, kwaye ukuthunyelwa kwebhetri yokugcina amandla kuya kudlula i-180GWh, nto leyo eya kunyusa ukuthunyelwa kweebhetri ezine ezinkulu ze-lithium.
Nangona amaxabiso e-lithium ore kunye netyuwa ye-lithium ehlile ngoDisemba ka-2022. Nangona kunjalo, emehlweni abathengisi, oku kungenxa yesiphumo sexesha elingekhoyo, kwaye "inqanaba lokunyuka" kwamaxabiso e-lithium alikafiki.
I-Huaxi Securities ikholelwa ukuba ukuguquguquka kwexabiso letyuwa ye-lithium kukuguquguquka okuqhelekileyo kwexesha eliphezulu leshishini, kungekhona "inqanaba lokunyuka". I-Shen Wanhongyuan Securities ikwakholelwa ukuba ngokukhululwa ngakumbi kwamandla emveliso yezinto eziluhlaza ngo-2023, umkhwa wenzuzo yekhonkco leshishini lebhetri ye-lithium uya kuqhubeka ukusuka phezulu ukuya ezantsi. I-Zhejiang Business Securities ikholelwa ukuba ukuvuma okuncinci kwezixhobo ze-lithium kukhulu kunokuba kufuneka kwisiqingatha sesibini sowama-2023.
Ixesha lokuthumela: Jan-10-2023