Intshayelelo:Kutshanje, amaxabiso e-xylene adibeneyo asekhaya eTshayina angene kwelinye inqanaba lokungazinzi kunye nokuhlanganiswa, kunye nokuguquguquka okuncinci kwimimandla kunye nendawo encinci yokuphumelela okuphezulu okanye okusezantsi. Ukusukela ngoJulayi, ukuthatha ixabiso elimiselweyo kwizibuko laseJiangsu njengomzekelo, iingxoxo ziye zajikeleza kuluhlu oluphakathi kwe-6,000-6,180 yuan/ton, ngelixa ukuguquguquka kwamaxabiso kwezinye iindawo kukwaxhomekeke kwi-200 yuan/ton.
Ukungazinzi kwamaxabiso kunokubangelwa kukungabikho kobonelelo lwasekhaya kunye nemfuno kwelinye icala, kunye nokungabikho kwesikhokelo esivela kwiimarike zangaphandle kwelinye icala. Ngokwembono ye-dynamics ye-supply-demand dynamics yasekhaya, izixhobo ze-xylene ezixutyiweyo zihlala ziqinile. Ngenxa yokuvalwa kwexesha elide kwe-arbitrage window yokungenisa impahla, iindawo zokugcina iimpahla zorhwebo zibone ukufika okumbalwa kokungenisa impahla, kwaye ukuhanjiswa kweenqanawa zasekhaya kwehle kancinci xa kuthelekiswa namaxesha angaphambili, nto leyo ekhokelela ekwehleni ngakumbi kwamanqanaba empahla.
Nangona unikezelo lusancinci, uxinano kunikezelo lwe-xylene oluxutyiweyo luye lwaqhubeka ixesha elide. Ngenxa yokuba amaxabiso e-xylene ahlale ephezulu, impembelelo yokuxhasa uxinano kumaxabiso iye yehla.
Kwicala lemfuno, ukusetyenziswa kwekhaya bekubuthathaka kakhulu kwixesha elidlulileyo. Ngenxa yokuba amaxabiso e-xylene exutyiweyo ebephezulu xa kuthelekiswa nezinye izinto ezinuka kamnandi, imfuno yokuxuba iye yehla. Ukusukela phakathi kuJuni, ukusasazeka kwexabiso phakathi kwe-PX futures kunye neekhontrakthi zephepha/iindawo zasekhaya ze-MX kuye kwehla kancinci ukuya kwi-600-700 yuan/ton, okunciphisa ukuzimisela kwezityalo ze-PX ukuthenga i-xylene exutyiweyo ngaphandle. Kwangaxeshanye, ukugcinwa kwezinye iiyunithi ze-PX kukhokelele ekwehleni kokusetyenziswa kwe-xylene exutyiweyo.
Nangona kunjalo, imfuno yakutshanje ye-xylene exutyiweyo ibonakalise utshintsho oluhambelana nokuguquguquka kokusasazeka kwe-PX-MX. Ukusukela phakathi kuJulayi, ii-PX futures ziye zaphinda zanda, zandisa ukusasazeka ngokuchasene neekhontrakthi ze-xylene spot kunye nephepha ezixutyiweyo. Ngasekupheleni kukaJulayi, umsantsa wawusele ubuyele kuluhlu olubanzi lwe-800-900 yuan/ton, nto leyo ebuyisela inzuzo yokuguqulwa kwe-MX-to-PX kwi-short-process. Oku kuvuselele umdla wezityalo ze-PX ekuthengweni kwe-xylene exutyiweyo yangaphandle, kubonelela ngenkxaso yamaxabiso e-xylene exutyiweyo.
Nangona amandla kwi-PX futures ebonelele ngokunyuswa okwethutyana kwamaxabiso e-xylene adibeneyo, ukuqaliswa kwakutshanje kweeyunithi ezintsha ezifana neDaxie Petrochemical, Zhenhai, kunye neYulong kulindeleke ukuba kuqinise ukungalingani kwemfuno yokubonelela ngempahla yasekhaya kwixesha elizayo. Nangona izinto ezikwi-inventri eziphantsi ngokwembali zinokucothisa ukwakheka koxinzelelo lokubonelela ngempahla, inkxaso yesakhiwo sexesha elifutshane ekunikezeni ngempahla kunye nemfuno ihlala injalo. Nangona kunjalo, amandla akutshanje kwimarike yeempahla aqhutywa kakhulu yimvakalelo yezoqoqosho olukhulu, okwenza uzinzo lwe-PX futures' lungaqiniseki.
Ukongeza, utshintsho kwifestile ye-arbitrage yase-Asia-America lufuna ingqalelo. Ukusasazeka kwamaxabiso phakathi kwezi ndawo zimbini kuye kwancipha kutshanje, kwaye ukuba ifestile ye-arbitrage iyavalwa, uxinzelelo lobonelelo lwe-xylene exutyiweyo e-Asia lunokunyuka. Lilonke, ngelixa inkxaso yesakhiwo sexesha elifutshane-imfuno yobonelelo ihlala iqinile, kwaye ukusasazeka kwe-PX-MX okwandayo kubonelela ngamandla athile aphezulu, inqanaba langoku lamaxabiso e-xylene exutyiweyo-kunye notshintsho lwexesha elide kwi-dynamics yemfuno yobonelelo-ithintela amathuba eentsingiselo ze-bullish eziqhubekayo kwixesha elide.
Ixesha lokuthumela: Agasti-05-2025