Ngo-2022, phantsi kwemvelaphi yexabiso eliphezulu lamaxabiso amalahle kunye nokukhula okuqhubekayo komthamo wemveliso yasekhaya kwimarike yasekhaya ye-methanol, idlule kumjikelo we "W" wokungcangcazela kunye nobukhulu be-amplitude obungaphezulu kwe-36%. Sijonge phambili ku-2023, abangaphakathi kwishishini bakholelwa ukuba imakethi yemethanol yalo nyaka isaza kuqhubeka nemeko enkulu kunye nomjikelo womjikelo weshishini. Ngohlengahlengiso lokubonelela kunye nobudlelwane bemfuno kunye nohlengahlengiso lweendleko zempahla ekrwada, kulindeleke ukuba imfuno yemveliso iya kukhula ngaxeshanye, imarike iya kuzinza kwaye izinzile. Ikwabonisa iimpawu zokucotha ukukhula kwamandla emveliso, utshintsho kwisakhiwo sabathengi, kunye nokuguquguquka okuphindaphindiweyo kwimarike. Ngexesha elifanayo, impembelelo yokunikezelwa kwamanye amazwe kwimarike yasekhaya ingabonakaliswa ikakhulu kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka.
Izinga lokukhula kwamandla liyacotha
Ngokwezibalo ezivela kwi-Henan Chemical Network, ngo-2022, umthamo welizwe lam wokuvelisa imethanol wawuzizigidi ezi-5.545 zeetoni, kwaye umthamo omtsha wehlabathi wokuvelisa imethanol wawugxininiswe e-China. Ukuya ekupheleni kuka-2022, umthamo welizwe lam wemveliso yemethanol wawumalunga ne-113.06 yezigidi zeetoni, ibalwa kwi-59% yomthamo wemveliso yehlabathi jikelele, kunye nomthamo wemveliso osebenzayo wawumalunga ne-100 yezigidi zeetoni, ukwanda kwe-5.7% ngonyaka.
U-Han Hongwei, usekela-mongameli we-Henan Petroleum kunye ne-Chemical Industry Association, wathi ngo-2023, amandla okuvelisa i-methanol yelizwe lam ayaqhubeka ekhula, kodwa izinga lokukhula liza kuncipha. Ngo-2023, umthamo omtsha wemethanol welizwe lam unokuba malunga ne-4.9 yezigidi zeetoni. Ngelo xesha, umthamo wasekhaya we-methanol uya kufikelela kwi-118 yezigidi zeetoni, ukunyuka konyaka-ngonyaka we-4.4%. Okwangoku, isixhobo esitsha se-coal-to-methanol esisanda kuveliswa sincitshiswe kakhulu, ikakhulu ngenxa yokukhuthazwa kwethagethi “yekhabhoni ephindwe kabini” kunye neendleko eziphezulu zotyalo-mali kwiiprojekthi zemichiza yamalahle. Ingaba amandla amatsha anokuguqulwa ngokufanelekileyo kumandla okuvelisa ngokwenene kwixesha elizayo kwakhona kufuneka anikele ingqalelo kwisikhokelo somgaqo-nkqubo wesicwangciso se "Isicwangciso seMinyaka yeShumi elineSine" kwicala leshishini elitsha lemichiza yamalahle, kunye notshintsho kukhuseleko lokusingqongileyo kunye nemigaqo-nkqubo yamalahle.
Ngokwengxelo yengxelo yolwazi lwangaphambili, ukusukela nge-29 kaJanuwari, ixabiso lokurhweba eliqhelekileyo le-methanol yasekhaya linyuke laya kutsho kwi-2,600 yuan (ixabiso letoni, elifanayo ngezantsi), kwaye ixabiso lezibuko lide lenyuka laya kwi-yuan eyi-2,800, ukunyuka kwenyanga kwafikelela kwi-13%. "Impembelelo yokuqaliswa komthamo omtsha kwimarike inokubonakaliswa kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba ukuphindaphinda kwexabiso le-methanol ekuqaleni konyaka kulindeleke ukuba kuqhubeke." Utshilo uHan Hongwei.
Ubume bokusetyenziswa butshintsha
Umntu ophethe iprojekthi ye-Zhongyuan Futures Methanol uthe ngenxa yokuthintela kunye nokulawula ubhubhane kunye nobuthathaka be-macroeconomic buthathaka, ukwakhiwa kokusetyenziswa kwe-methanol kwixesha elizayo kuya kutshintsha. Phakathi kwazo, isantya sophuhliso lwamalahle-ukuya ku-olefins ngokusetyenziswa malunga ne-55% sinokucotha, kwaye ukusetyenziswa kwamashishini emveli asezantsi kulindeleke ukuba kukhule kwakhona.
UCui Huajie, umntu ophethe iHenan Ruiyuanxin's Chemical Management, uthe iimfuno zeolefins ziye zaba buthathaka ukusukela ngo-2022, kwaye nangona imakethi ye-methanol eluhlaza ihlengahlengiswe kukothuka, ihlala iphezulu. Ngaphantsi kweendleko eziphezulu, ilahle-to-olefin igcina ilahleko yelahleko unyaka wonke. Ukuchatshazelwa koku, ukuphuhliswa kwamalahle -to -olefin kubonise iimpawu zokucotha. Ngeyona projekthi iphezulu yokucoca kunye neekhemikhali ezidityanisiweyo zenkqubo enye yasekhaya ngo-2022 -i-Shenghong yokucoca kunye nemveliso ebanzi, iprojekthi ye-Slipon methanol olefin (MTO) ye-methanol iya kuba yi-2.4 yezigidi zeetoni kwithiyori. Elona zinga lokukhula kwemfuno ye-olefin kwi-methanol liya kuthoba nangakumbi.
Ngokomphathi we-Henan Energy Group, kwinkalo yemveli esezantsi ye-methanol, inani elikhulu leeprojekthi ze-acetic acid ziya kuqaliswa ukusuka kwi-2020 ukuya kwi-2021 phantsi komtsalane wenzuzo ephezulu, kwaye amandla okuvelisa i-acetic acid agcine ukunyuka konyaka kweetoni ezizigidi ezi-1 kule minyaka mibini idlulileyo. Kwi-2023, i-1.2 yezigidi zeetoni ze-acetic acid kulindeleke ukuba yongezwe, ilandelwa yi-260,000 yeetoni ze-methane chloride, i-180,000 yeetoni ze-methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) kunye neetoni ze-550,000 ze-N, n-dimethylformamide (DMF). Lilonke, ukukhula kwemfuno yeshishini lemethanol esezantsi kunendlela eyandayo, kwaye ipateni yokusetyenziswa kwemethanol yasekhaya iphinda ibonise indlela yophuhliso eyahluka-hlukeneyo, kwaye ubume bokusetyenziswa bunokutshintsha. Nangona kunjalo, izicwangciso zemveliso zala mandla matsha kumashishini emveli asezantsi kakhulu agxininiswe kwisiqingatha sesibini okanye ekupheleni konyaka, oya kuba nenkxaso encinci kwimarike yemethanol ngo-2023.
Ukothuka kweemarike akunakuphepheka
Ngokutsho konikezelo lwangoku kunye nolwakhiwo lwemfuno, uShao Huiwen, umhlalutyi ophezulu wemarike, uthe amandla okuvelisa i-methanol yasekhaya sele efumene inqanaba elithile lokugqithiswa, kodwa ngenxa yexabiso eliphezulu lezinto eziluhlaza ze-methanol zinokuqhubeka nokuchaphazeleka, nokuba umthamo omtsha wokuvelisa i-methanol unokucwangciswa ngo-2023 ngokwesicwangciso ngokwesicwangciso ilungele ukwenziwa kwemarike yemethanol kwisiqingatha sokuqala sika-2023.
Ukususela kumbono wenkqubo yokuvelisa izixhobo ezintsha ze-methanol zaphesheya, amandla okuvelisa agxininiswe kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka. Uxinzelelo lokubonelela ngempahla evela kumazwe angaphandle lunokubonakala kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka. Ukuba ixabiso eliphantsi lokungeniswa kwamanye amazwe liyenyuka, imarike yemethanol yasekhaya isaza kujongana neempembelelo zeemveliso ezithunyelwa ngaphandle kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka.
Ukongeza, ngo-2023, ishishini lemveli elisezantsi le-methanol kunye namashishini asakhasayo acetywayo ukuba afakwe kwimveliso yeeyunithi ezintsha, phakathi kwazo umthamo omtsha we-MTO uyimveliso edibeneyo, i-methanol ecocekileyo ye-fuel ine-marketment eyongezelelweyo kwintsimi yamandla amatsha, imfuno ye-methanol ilindeleke ukuba inyuke, kodwa izinga lokukhula lingaqhubeka licotha. Imarike yasekhaya yemethanol iyonke isekwimeko yokubonelela ngokugqithisileyo. Kulindeleke ukuba imakethe ye-methanol yasekhaya iya kuvuka kuqala ize izinze ngo-2023, kwaye ukulungelelaniswa kokulungelelaniswa kwesiqingatha sesibini sonyaka akunakugwenywa. Nangona kunjalo, ngenxa yeendleko eziphezulu zamalahle akrwada kunye negesi yendalo, kunzima ukuphucula imarike ye-methanol kwixesha elifutshane, kwaye ukothuka okupheleleyo akunakuphepheka.
Abangaphakathi kwishishini bathi umndilili wokukhula kwesantya sonyaka wemveliso yemethanol kule minyaka mihlanu izayo kulindeleke ukuba ube kuluhlu oluthe tyaba lwe-3% ukuya kwi-4%. Ngexesha elifanayo, kunye nokuhlanganiswa kwezoshishino kunye nokuphuculwa kwezobuchwepheshe, ngaphezu kwesigidi seetoni ze-methanol kwisixhobo sokudibanisa i-olefin kuseyinto eqhelekileyo, i-carbon eluhlaza kunye nezinye iinkqubo ezivelayo ziya kuba luncedo. I-Methanol ukuya kwi-aromatics kunye ne-methanol kwipetroli iya kufumana amathuba amatsha ophuhliso kunye nokwandiswa kwesikali semizi-mveliso, kodwa isixhobo esizixhasayo esihlangeneyo sisesona siqhelo sophuhliso, amandla amaxabiso aya kuba sezandleni zamashishini amakhulu ahamba phambili, kwaye isenzeko sokuguquguquka okukhulu kwimarike yemethanol kulindeleke ukuba kuphuculwe.
Ixesha lokuposa: Feb-08-2023