Ngowama-2022, phantsi kwemvelaphi yexabiso eliphezulu lamaxabiso amalahle aluhlaza kunye nokukhula okuqhubekayo kwamandla emveliso yasekhaya kwimarike ye-methanol yasekhaya, idlule kumjikelo wendlela yokungcangcazela "W" ene-amplitude ephezulu engaphezulu kwama-36%. Sijonge phambili ku-2023, abantu abangaphakathi kwishishini bakholelwa ukuba imakethi ye-methanol yalo nyaka iya kuhlala ihambelana nemeko ye-macro kunye ne-trend yomjikelo weshishini. Ngokulungiswa kobudlelwane bokubonelela kunye nemfuno kunye nokulungiswa kweendleko zezinto eziluhlaza, kulindeleke ukuba imfuno yemveliso ikhule ngaxeshanye, imakethi iya kuzinza kwaye izinzile. Ikwabonisa iimpawu zokucothisa ukukhula kwamandla emveliso, utshintsho kwisakhiwo sabathengi, kunye nokuguquguquka okuninzi kwimarike. Kwangaxeshanye, impembelelo yokunikezelwa kwemveliso kwamanye amazwe kwimarike yasekhaya inokubonakaliswa ikakhulu kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka.
Isantya sokukhula kwamandla siyacotha
Ngokwezibalo ezivela kwiHenan Chemical Network, ngo-2022, amandla emveliso ye-methanol yelizwe lam yayiziitoni ezi-5.545 ezigidi, kwaye amandla emveliso entsha ye-methanol kwihlabathi liphela ayegxile eTshayina. Ekupheleni kuka-2022, amandla emveliso ye-methanol yelizwe lam yayimalunga neetoni ezi-113.06 ezigidi, ebalelwa kwi-59% yamandla emveliso ehlabathi liphela, kwaye amandla emveliso asebenzayo ayemalunga neetoni ezi-100 ezigidi, ukwanda kwe-5.7% ngonyaka.
UHan Hongwei, usekela-mongameli weHenan Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, uthe ngo-2023, amandla okuvelisa i-methanol kwilizwe lam ayaqhubeka nokukhula, kodwa izinga lokukhula liza kuncipha. Ngo-2023, amandla amatsha e-methanol kwilizwe lam anokuba malunga ne-4.9 yezigidi zeetoni. Ngelo xesha, amandla okuvelisa i-methanol yasekhaya aya kufikelela kwi-118 yezigidi zeetoni, ukunyuka konyaka nonyaka kwe-4.4%. Okwangoku, isixhobo esitsha esiveliswayo samalahle ukuya kwi-methanol sinciphile kakhulu, ikakhulu ngenxa yokukhuthazwa kwenjongo "yekhabhoni ephindwe kabini" kunye neendleko zotyalo-mali eziphezulu zeeprojekthi zeekhemikhali zamalahle. Nokuba amandla amatsha anokuguqulwa ngokufanelekileyo abe ngamandla okuvelisa okwenyani kwixesha elizayo kufuneka kuqwalaselwe isikhokelo somgaqo-nkqubo wocwangciso "lweSicwangciso seMinyaka emihlanu seshumi elinesine" kwicala leshishini elitsha leekhemikhali zamalahle, kunye notshintsho kwimigaqo-nkqubo yokukhuselwa kwendalo kunye namalahle.
Ngokwengxelo yolwazi oluvela kwimarike, ukusukela nge-29 kaJanuwari, ixabiso eliphambili lokurhweba nge-methanol yasekhaya linyuke laya kwi-2,600 yuan (ixabiso leetoni, elifana nelingezantsi), kwaye ixabiso lezibuko linyuke laya kwi-2,800 yuan, ukunyuka kwenyanga kufikelele kwi-13%. "Impembelelo yokuqaliswa kwamandla amatsha kwimarike inokubonakala kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba ukwehla kwexabiso le-methanol ekuqaleni konyaka kulindeleke ukuba kuqhubeke." utshilo uHan Hongwei.
Utshintsho kwisakhiwo sokusetyenziswa
Umntu ophethe iprojekthi ye-Zhongyuan Futures Methanol uthe ngenxa yokuthintela nokulawula ubhubhane kunye nokuba buthathaka koqoqosho olukhulu, ulwakhiwo lokusetyenziswa kwe-methanol kwixesha elizayo nalo luya kutshintsha. Phakathi kwazo, isantya sophuhliso lwee-coal-to-olefins ezinokusetyenziswa malunga ne-55% sinokucotha, kwaye ukusetyenziswa kwamashishini emveli asezantsi kulindeleke ukuba kukhule kwakhona.
UCui Huajie, umntu ophethe iHenan Ruiyuanxin's Chemical Management, uthe iimfuno ze-olefins ziye zaba buthathaka ukusukela ngo-2022, kwaye nangona imakethi ye-methanol eluhlaza ilungisiwe ziimeko ezingaqhelekanga, ihlala iphezulu. Phantsi kweendleko eziphezulu, i-coal-to-olefin igcina ilahleko yokulahleka unyaka wonke. Ichatshazelwe koku, uphuhliso lwe-coal-to-olefin lubonise iimpawu zokucotha. Ngeprojekthi ephezulu yokucokisa kunye neyokudibanisa iikhemikhali yenkqubo yasekhaya enye ngo-2022 -Shenghong refining kunye nemveliso epheleleyo, iprojekthi ye-Slipon methanol olefin (MTO) ye-methanol iya kuba ziitoni ezizigidi ezingama-2.4 ngokwethiyori. Izinga lokukhula kwemfuno ye-olefins kwi-methanol liya kucotha ngakumbi.
Ngokutsho komphathi weHenan Energy Group, kwicala lemveli elisezantsi le-methanol, inani elikhulu leeprojekthi ze-acetic acid ziya kuqaliswa ukususela ngo-2020 ukuya ku-2021 phantsi kokutsalwa yinzuzo ephezulu, kwaye amandla okuvelisa i-acetic acid agcine ukunyuka konyaka kwe-1 yezigidi zeetoni kwiminyaka emibini edlulileyo. Ngo-2023, kulindeleke ukuba kongezwe iitoni ezi-1.2 zezigidi ze-acetic acid, kulandele iitoni ezingama-260,000 ze-methane chloride, iitoni ezili-180,000 ze-methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) kunye neetoni ezingama-550,000 ze-N, n-dimethylformamide (DMF). Lilonke, ukukhula kwemfuno yeshishini lemveli le-methanol elisezantsi linendlela ekhulayo, kwaye iphethini yokusetyenziswa kwe-methanol yasekhaya iphinda ibonise indlela yophuhliso eyahlukeneyo, kwaye isakhiwo sokusetyenziswa sinokutshintsha. Nangona kunjalo, izicwangciso zemveliso zala mandla matsha kumashishini asezantsi zigxile kakhulu kwisiqingatha sesibini okanye ekupheleni konyaka, nto leyo eya kuba nenkxaso encinci kwimarike ye-methanol ngo-2023.
Uloyiko lwemarike alunakuphepheka
Ngokwesakhiwo sangoku sokubonelela kunye nemfuno, uShao Huiwen, umhlalutyi ophezulu wemarike, uthe amandla emveliso ye-methanol yasekhaya sele enamava athile omthamo ogqithisileyo, kodwa ngenxa yeendleko eziphezulu imeko yezixhobo ze-methanol inokuqhubeka ichaphazeleka, nokuba amandla emveliso ye-methanol entsha anokucwangciswa ngo-2023 ngokwesicwangciso ngokwesicwangciso Imveliso isaza kujongwa, kwaye imveliso ikwagxininiswe kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka, nto leyo eya kuba luncedo ekudalweni kwemarike ye-methanol kwisiqingatha sokuqala sika-2023.
Ngokwembono yenkqubo yokuvelisa izixhobo ezintsha ze-methanol zaphesheya, amandla okuvelisa agxininiswe kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka. Uxinzelelo lokungenisa umbane lunokucaca kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka. Ukuba ukungenisa umbane ngexabiso eliphantsi kuyakhula, imakethi ye-methanol yasekhaya iya kuqhubeka ijongene nefuthe leemveliso ezingenisiweyo kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka.
Ukongeza, ngo-2023, ishishini lemveli elisezantsi le-methanol kunye namashishini asakhasayo licwangciselwe ukufaka kwimveliso yeeyunithi ezintsha, phakathi kwazo amandla amatsha e-MTO ikakhulu kukuveliswa okudibeneyo, i-methanol clean fuel inemarike ekhulayo kwicandelo lamandla amatsha, imfuno ye-methanol kulindeleke ukuba inyuke, kodwa izinga lokukhula lisenokuqhubeka lincipha. Imarike ye-methanol yasekhaya iyonke isekwimeko yokunikezelwa ngokugqithisileyo. Kulindeleke ukuba imarike ye-methanol yasekhaya inyuke kuqala ize izinze ngo-2023, kwaye amathuba okulungiswa kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka akanakucinywa. Nangona kunjalo, ngenxa yeendleko eziphezulu zamalahle aluhlaza kunye negesi yendalo, kunzima ukuphucula imarike ye-methanol kwixesha elifutshane, kwaye ukothuka ngokubanzi akunakuphepheka.
Abantu abangaphakathi kushishino bathi izinga lokukhula komndilili wonyaka lomthamo wemveliso ye-methanol kwiminyaka emihlanu ezayo kulindeleke ukuba libe kuluhlu oluthe tyaba lwe-3% ukuya kwi-4%. Kwangaxeshanye, ngokuhlanganiswa kwemizi-mveliso kunye nokuphuculwa kweteknoloji, ngaphezulu kwesigidi seetoni zesixhobo sokudibanisa i-methanol ukuya kwi-olefin siseseyona nto iphambili, i-green carbon kunye nezinye iinkqubo ezivelayo ziya kuba sisongezelelo. I-Methanol ukuya kwi-aromatics kunye ne-methanol ukuya kwipetroli nazo ziya kufumana amathuba amatsha ophuhliso ngokwandiswa komlinganiselo wemizi-mveliso, kodwa isixhobo esidibeneyo esizixhasayo siseyindlela yophuhliso oluqhelekileyo, amandla amaxabiso aya kuba sezandleni zamashishini amakhulu akhokelayo, kwaye imeko yokuguquguquka okukhulu kwimarike ye-methanol kulindeleke ukuba iphuculwe.
Ixesha lokuthumela: Feb-08-2023