Ishishini leekhemikhali lijongene nokunyuka kwamaxabiso "okungokwembali" ngo-2025, okuqhutywa luhlenga-hlengiso lwezinto ezifunekayo zonikezelo kunye nolwabiwo ngokutsha lwexabiso kulo lonke unikezelo. Apha ngezantsi lucazululo lwabaqhubi abasemva kokunyuka kwamaxabiso, ingqiqo emva kweyantlukwano yenzuzo, iindlela zohlengahlengiso lweshishini, kunye namathuba otyalo-mali.
I. Abaqhubi abaNxibeleleyo bexabiso lokunyuka kwexabiso
1. Utshintsho lwenguqu kwiiMathiriyeli ezikrwada
- Ukungalingani kwemfuno ye-oyile ekrwada: Ukunciphisa imveliso ye-OPEC + kudityaniswe nokukhula okuncinci okuvela kubavelisi abangengabo be-OPEC bagcine i-Brent crude ngaphezulu kwe-100 yeedola / umphanda.
- Ugqabhuko lwemfuno yemathiriyeli yamandla amatsha: I-Lithium carbonate (ibakala lemizi-mveliso yeebhetri ze-LFP) amaxabiso anyuke nge-120% yoYY, ngelixa isinyibilikisi se-DMC se-electrolyte saqhawuka kwi-¥10,000/toni yamanqaku.
- Iindleko zekhabhoni ezicacileyo: Iintlawulo zekhabhoni ze-CBAM ze-EU ngoku zigubungela iikhemikhali ezisisiseko ezifana ne-synthetic ammonia kunye ne-methanol.
2. Unikezelo lwesakhiwo-Ukuqina kwecala
- Ukufuduswa kwamandla aseYurophu: I-BASF kunye nezinye izigebenga zivale i-30% ye-synthetic ye-ammonia yaseJamani, ukuguqula imveliso kwi-US Gulf Coast.
- Uhlaziyo lwecala lonikezelo lwaseTshayina 2.0: Iimfuno zokusingqongileyo kunye nokuphuculwa kobugcisa kumashishini edayi kunye ne-titanium dioxide yakhawulezisa ukuphuma kwabavelisi abancinci ukuya kwabaphakathi.
-Iingxaki ze-Geopolitical Logistics bottlenecks: Ingxaki yoLwandle oluBomvu ibangele ukunyuka kwe-300% e-Asia-Europe iindleko zokuthumela ngenqanawa, ukwandisa ixabiso leemveliso ezithintekayo zothutho ezifana ne-TDI.
3. Iindleko zokudlula ukusuka kwiiShift zeTekhnoloji
- Ukuthengiswa kwezinto ezisekelwe kwi-bio: Amaxabiso e-PLA ayalela i-premium ye-40% ngaphezu kwe-PE yendabuko, kunye ne-Apple kunye ne-Tesla yokutshixa kwiikontrakthi zexesha elide.
- Ukwakhiwa kweekhemikhali ze-semiconductor: Amaxabiso e-ultra-pure electronic-grade hydrofluoric acid adlula i-$ 50,000 / toni, kunye ne-premium ye-15% ngaphezu kweendlela zaseJapan / zaseMzantsi Korea.
II. Imephu yokwahlukana kweNzuzo
| Icandelo | Utshintsho lwe-ROE (2024 vs. 2025) | Price Spread Ukwandiswa | Abaqhubi abaphambili |
| Izinto eziNtsha zaMandla | +8.2pct→ 21.5% | 35-50% | Ukuphumelela kwebhetri yemeko eqinileyo |
| Imichiza emininzi | -3.5pct → 6.8% | 10-15% | Ukusilela kweendleko zendlela esekwe kumalahle |
| Iikhemikhali ezikhethekileyo | +5.1pct→ 18.3% | 25-40% | Imfuno yezixhobo zemoto ezilula |
| Iikhemikhali zezolimo | +2.3pct → 12.7% | 18-22% | Ukwamkelwa kwesityalo se-GMO + imbalela yaseMzantsi Melika |
III. UkuFuduka kweXabiso ngapha kweSixokelelwano soBonelelo
1. AbaPhathi beZibonelelo eziPhezulu (umzekelo, abavelisi be-phosphate & ne-lithium) balawula amandla amaxabiso, kunye neenkampani ezifana ne-Yuntianhua zifezekisa > i-50% ye-gross margins kwikota enye.
2. IMidstream High-Barrier Segments:
-IiFluoropolymers: PVDF imirhumo yokulungisa imathiriyeli yokwahlula ibethe ¥80,000/toni.
- Iikhemikhali ze-Ultra-high-purity: Iimfuno zokuhlanjululwa kwe-isopropanol ze-Semiconductor-grade zenyuka ukusuka kwi-99.99% ukuya kwi-99.9999%.
3. Ababoneleli boLungiselelo olusezantsi: Iinkampani ezifana neCovestro zazisa iimodeli "zokuhlawula-ukusebenza", zandisa ukugcinwa kwabathengi ngama-30%.
IV. Amanqaku aphambili ka-2025
1. ITekhnoloji yoFakelo lweWindows:
- Inzuzo yokuqhekeka kwe-Ethane iyacutha, kunye neprojekthi yePDH ROI iwe ngaphantsi kwe-5%.
- Iindleko zemveliso ye-Bio-based BDO zehla nge-25% ngokuchasene neendlela zepetroleum.
2. Ukulungelelaniswa kwakhona kweNgingqi:
- Middle East sulfur-chemical hub: I-SABIC yaseSaudi yakha i-2M ton / ngonyaka isityalo esinexabiso eliphantsi le-sulfuric acid.
- I-Southeast Asia coatings intermediates: I-Nippon Paint Vietnam isebenza kwi-120% yokusetyenziswa kwamandla.
3. UVavanyo lweESG:
- Iiprojekthi ze-ammonia ezisekelwe kwi-hydrogen eziluhlaza zifumana iintlawulo zexabiso ezi-3x.
-Ukuvalwa kwe-EU kwi-PFAS-equlethe iimveliso zokuqhuba> 60% CAGR kwezinye iindlela.
V. Investment Decision Matrix
Ulwabiwo oluPhambili ngoBuchule:
- Izinto ezithintelayo eziphezulu: I-Aramid honeycomb cores, i-silicon carbide precursors.
- Abaphazamisi benkqubo: I-Plasma-based adiponitrile synthesis, CO₂-to-DMC ukuguqulwa.
-Iintshatsheli ezifihliweyo: Iifotoresist strippers, ii-aerospace-grade sealants.
Izilumkiso zoMngcipheko:
- I-US ibeka iirhafu ze-15% kwizinto ezisekelwe kwi-bio-based yaseTshayina (esebenzayo Q3 2025).
-Ukuphumelela kwebhetri ye-sodium-ion kunokudiliza imfuno yezinto ze-lithium.
Ishishini liphantsi kohlenga-hlengiso lwalo lwekhonkco lexabiso elibalulekileyo ukususela ngo-2008. Phakathi kokunyuka kwamaxabiso okuguquguquka, iifemu ezigcina ingeniso yempahla phantsi kweentsuku ezingama-30 ziya kubonisa ukomelela kwengeniso.
Ixesha lokuposa: May-30-2025