Ishishini leekhemikhali lijongene nokunyuka kwamaxabiso "okuyimbali" ngo-2025, okuqhutywa kukulungiswa kwakhona kweendlela zokubonelela ngeenkonzo kunye nokusasazwa ngokutsha kwexabiso kulo lonke uthotho lokubonelela ngeenkonzo. Apha ngezantsi kukho uhlalutyo lwezinto ezibangela ukunyuka kwamaxabiso, ingqiqo ebangela umahluko wenzuzo, iindlela zokulungiswa kwakhona kweshishini, kunye namathuba otyalo-mali.
I. Izinto Ezibangela Ukunyuka Kwamaxabiso Ngokunzulu
1. Utshintsho Oluguqukayo Kwizinto Ezingasetyenzwa
- Ukungalingani kwemfuno ye-oyile ekrwada: Ukuncitshiswa kwemveliso ye-OPEC+ kunye nokukhula okuncinci kwabavelisi abangengabo abe-OPEC kugcine i-Brent crude ingaphezulu kwe-$100 ngebhareli.
- Imfuno egqithisileyo yezixhobo ezintsha zamandla: Amaxabiso e-lithium carbonate (umgangatho wezoshishino kwiibhetri ze-LFP) anyuke nge-120% YoY, ngelixa i-DMC electrolyte solvent idlule kwi-¥10,000/ton mark.
- Iindleko zekhabhoni ezicacileyo: Iirhafu zekhabhoni ze-CBAM ze-EU ngoku zigubungela iikhemikhali ezisisiseko ezifana ne-ammonia yokwenziwa kunye ne-methanol.
2. Ukuqina kweCandelo loNikezelo lweZakhiwo
- Ukufuduswa komthamo waseYurophu: I-BASF kunye nezinye iingxilimbela zivale i-30% yomthamo we-ammonia yokwenziwa eJamani, zithutha imveliso ziye kwi-US Gulf Coast.
- Uhlaziyo lwe-2.0 kwicala lokubonelela ngempahla eTshayina: Iimfuno zokuphucula okusingqongileyo nobuchwepheshe kumashishini edayi kunye ne-titanium dioxide zikhawulezise ukuphuma kwabavelisi abancinci ukuya kwabaphakathi.
- Imiqobo yezothutho lwelizwe: Ingxaki yoLwandle oluBomvu ibangele ukunyuka kwama-300% kwiindleko zokuthunyelwa kwempahla e-Asia-Europe, nto leyo eyandisa ukwanda kwamaxabiso eemveliso ezibuthathaka kwezothutho ezifana ne-TDI.
3. Iindleko ezigqithisiweyo ezivela kwiinguqu zobuchwepheshe
- Ukuthengiswa kwezinto ezisekelwe kwi-bio: Amaxabiso e-PLA abiza iprimiyamu engama-40% kune-PE yendabuko, apho i-Apple kunye ne-Tesla zingena kwizivumelwano zexesha elide.
- Indawo yeekhemikhali ze-semiconductor: Amaxabiso e-hydrofluoric acid e-elektroniki acocekileyo kakhulu adlule kwi-$50,000/toni, kunye ne-premium ye-15% ngaphezu kwezinye iindlela zaseJapan/zaseMzantsi Korea.
II. Imephu yokwahluka kwenzuzo
| Icandelo | Utshintsho lwe-ROE (2024 vs. 2025) | Ukwanda koSasazo lwaMaxabiso | Abaqhubi Abaphambili |
| Izixhobo Ezintsha Zamandla | +8.2pct→ 21.5% | 35-50% | Ukuphumelela kwebhetri ye-Solid-state |
| Iikhemikhali ezininzi | -3.5pct → 6.8% | 10-15% | Ingxaki yeendleko zendlela esekelwe kumalahle |
| Iikhemikhali ezikhethekileyo | +5.1pct→ 18.3% | 25-40% | Imfuno yezixhobo zeemoto ezilula |
| Iikhemikhali zezolimo | +2.3pct → 12.7% | 18-22% | Ukwamkelwa kwezityalo ze-GMO + imbalela yaseMzantsi Melika |
III. Ukufuduka kwexabiso kulo lonke uthotho lweeNkonzo
1. Abanini beZibonelelo abaPhezulu (umz., abavelisi be-phosphate kunye ne-lithium) balawula amandla amaxabiso, apho iinkampani ezifana neYuntianhua zifumana ngaphezulu kwama-50% eenzuzo kwikota enye.
2. Iinxalenye zeMidstream High-Barrier:
- IiFluoropolymers: Iindleko zokucubungula izinto zokwahlulahlula iPVDF zifikelela kwi-¥80,000/toni.
- Iikhemikhali ezicocekileyo kakhulu: Iimfuneko zococeko lwe-isopropanol olukumgangatho we-semiconductor zinyuke ukusuka kwi-99.99% ukuya kwi-99.9999%.
3. Ababoneleli boLungiso oluPhambili: Iinkampani ezifana neCovestro ziqalise iimodeli "zokuhlawula ngokusebenza", nto leyo eyandisa ukugcinwa kwabathengi nge-30%.
IV. Amanqaku aPhambili oPhuculo luka-2025
1. Iifestile zokutshintsha iTekhnoloji:
- Inzuzo yeendleko ka-Ethane Cracking iyancipha, apho i-ROI yeprojekthi ye-PDH iwela ngaphantsi kwe-5%.
- Iindleko zemveliso ye-BDO esekelwe kwi-bio zehla ngama-25% xa kuthelekiswa neendlela zepetroli.
2. Ukulungelelaniswa kwakhona kweNgingqi:
- Isikhungo seekhemikhali zesalfure-chemical eMbindi Mpuma: I-SABIC yaseSaudi yakha isityalo se-sulfuric acid esixabisa kancinci esine-2M yeetoni ngonyaka.
- Iingubo eziphakathi zaseMpuma Asia: I-Nippon Paint Vietnam isebenza ngomthamo osetyenziswa yi-120%.
3. Uvavanyo lwe-ESG:
- Iiprojekthi ze-ammonia eziluhlaza ezisekelwe kwi-hydrogen zifumana iiprimiyamu zovavanyo eziphindwe kathathu.
- I-EU iyawuvala umkhankaso weemveliso eziqulathe i-PFAS >60% CAGR kwezinye iindlela.
V. I-Matrix yeSigqibo soTyalo-mali
Izinto eziPhambili zoKwabiwa kweCandelo loBuchule:
- Izinto ezinomqobo ophezulu: Ii-cores ze-Aramid honeycomb, ii-precursors ze-silicon carbide.
- Iziphazamisi zenkqubo: Ukwenziwa kwe-adiponitrile okusekwe kwi-Plasma, ukuguqulwa kwe-CO₂-ukuya kwi-DMC.
- Iintshatsheli ezifihliweyo: Ii-strippers ze-Photoresist, ii-sealants ze-aerospace.
Izaziso zoMngcipheko:
- I-US ibeka irhafu ye-15% kwizixhobo zaseTshayina ezisekelwe kwibhayoloji (isebenza ukususela kwikota yesithathu ka-2025).
- Ukuphumelela kwebhetri yeSodium-ion kunokunciphisa imfuno yezinto zelithium.
Eli shishini liphantsi kohlengahlengiso olukhulu lwekhonkco lexabiso ukusukela ngo-2008. Iinkampani ezinezakhono zokwahluka kwezobuchwepheshe kunye nokudibanisa ngokuthe nkqo, kunye nabadlali abakwicandelo elithile abaneelayisenisi zemveliso ezinqabileyo, zezona zinto ziphambili ekugxilwe kuzo. Phakathi kokuguquguquka kwamaxabiso okuphezulu, iinkampani ezigcina ukuthengiswa kwezinto ezisetyenzisiweyo ngaphantsi kweentsuku ezingama-30 ziya kubonisa ukuqina kwenzuzo.
Ixesha leposi: Meyi-30-2025