Nangona kwisiqingatha sesibini sowama-2022, iikhemikhali zamandla kunye nezinye izinto ezithengiswayo zingene kwisigaba sokulungiswa, kodwa abahlalutyi beGoldman Sachs kwingxelo yakutshanje basagxininise ukuba izinto ezisisiseko ezimisela ukunyuka kweekhemikhali zamandla kunye nezinye izinto ezithengiswayo azitshintshanga, ziya kuzisa imbuyekezo eqaqambileyo kunyaka ozayo.
NgoLwesibini, uJeff Currie, umlawuli weGoldman Sachs Commodity Research, kunye noSamantha Dart, umlawuli wophando lwegesi yendalo, balindele ukuba umlinganiselo wezinto ezinkulu ezifana noshishino lweekhemikhali ubekwe kwinqanaba eliphantsi, Oko kuthetha ukuba i-S&P GSCI Total Return Index ingafumana amanye ama-43% ngo-2023 emva kwembuyekezo engaphezulu kwama-20% kulo nyaka.
(I-S&P Kospi Total Commodities Index, umthombo: Utyalo-mali)
GIndoda endala uSachs ilindele ukuba imakethi kwikota yokuqala ka-2023 inokuba neengxaki ezithile xa kufikwa ekuwohlokeni koqoqosho, kodwa ukunikezelwa kweoyile kunye negesi yendalo kuya kuqhubeka nokunyuka.
Ukongeza kwiziko lophando lomthengisi, imali ikwasebenzisa igolide nesilivere yokwenyani ukuveza ithemba layo lexesha elide malunga neempahla. Ngokwedatha etyalwe yiBridge Alternative, iikholeji ezili-15 eziphambili ezigxile kwimarike yeempahla kulo nyaka, ubungakanani beempahla ezilawulwa yi-50% ukuya kwi-20.7 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi.
UGoldman Sachs ugqibe kwelokuba ngaphandle kwemali eyaneleyo yokuvelisa amandla emveliso atyebileyo, iimpahla ziya kuqhubeka nokunqongophala kwexesha elide, kwaye ixabiso liya kuqhubeka linyuka kwaye litshintsha-tshintsha ngakumbi.
Ngokuphathelele iinjongo ezithile, iGoldman Sachs ilindele ukuba ioyile ekrwada, okwangoku ejikeleze i-$80 ngebhereli, inyuke iye kwi-$105 ekupheleni kuka-2023; kwaye ixabiso legesi yendalo yaseAsia linokunyuka ukusuka kwi-$33/izigidi ukuya kwi-$53.
Kungekudala, kubekho iimpawu zokuchacha kwimarike ekwaziyo, kwaye iikhemikhali ziye zanda ngakumbi.
Ngomhla we-16 kweyoMnga, phakathi kweemveliso ezili-110 ezijongiweyo yiZhuochuang Information, iimveliso ezingama-55 zanda kulo mjikelo, zifikelela kwi-50.00%; iimveliso ezingama-26 zahlala zizinzile, zifikelela kwi-23.64%; iimveliso ezingama-29 zawa, zifikelela kwi-26.36%.
Ngokwembono yeemveliso ezithile, i-PBT, i-polyester filament, kunye ne-benhypenhydronic ngokucacileyo ziyafunyanwa.
I-PBT
Kutshanje, amaxabiso emarike ye-PBT anyukile, kwaye inzuzo ibuyele umva. Ukusukela ngoDisemba, ishishini lokuqala laqala ukuba nabavelisi abathengisa izinto ezithengiswayo ezikwi-spot inventory tight, kwaye kwi-BDO pull up work, i-terminal panic to take goods mentality yanda, i-PBT market spot supply incinci, ixabiso lanyuka kancinci, inzuzo yeshishini yaguquka.
Itshathi yendlela yokuxabisa ixabiso le-PBT pure resin eMpuma China
I-POY
Emva kwe-“Golden Nine Silver Ten”, imfuno yeefilaments zepolyester yehle kakhulu. Abavelisi baqhubekile nokwenza inzuzo, kwaye ingqwalasela yentengiselwano iyaqhubeka nokwehla. Ekupheleni kukaNovemba, ingqwalasela yentengiselwano yePoy150D yayiyi-6,700 yuan/ton. NgoDisemba, njengoko imfuno yokugqibela yayibuya kancinci kancinci, kwaye imodeli ephambili yeefilaments zepolyester yayinkulu kwimali engenayo, abavelisi babethengisa ngamaxabiso aphantsi, kwaye ingxelo yaphakanyiswa omnye emva komnye. Abasebenzisi abasezantsi babexhalabile ukuba iindleko zokuthenga kwixesha elizayo zonyukile. Imo yemarike yefilaments zepolyester iqhubekile nokunyuka. Phakathi kuDisemba, ixabiso lePoy150D yayiyi-7075 yuan/ton, ukunyuka kwe-5.6% ukusuka kwinyanga ephelileyo.
PA
Imarike ye-benhynhydr yasekhaya iphelile phantse iinyanga ezimbini, kwaye imarike iqalise ukwehla okukhulu kwe-rebound. Ukusukela oko yangena kule veki, ichaphazeleka kukubuyela kwakhona kwemarike ye-benhypenichydr, inzuzo yeshishini le-benhypenhydrate yasekhaya iphucukile. Phakathi kwazo, inzuzo iyonke yemveliso yesampulu ye-benhypenhydrate ekufutshane yi-132 yuan/ton, ukunyuka kwe-568 yuan/ton ukusuka nge-8 kaDisemba, kwaye ukwehla yi-130.28%. Ixabiso lezinto ezikrwada lihlile, kodwa imarike ye-bonalide izinzile kwaye ibuyele kwakhona, kwaye imboni itshintshile kwilahleko. Inzuzo iyonke yesampulu ye-pyrine yi-190 yuan/ton, ukunyuka kwe-70 yuan/ton ukusuka nge-8 kaDisemba, kunye nokuhla kwe-26.92%. Oku kungenxa yokuba ixabiso leshishini lezinto ezikrwada libuyele kwakhona, ngelixa ixabiso lemarike le-benic anhydride linyuke kakhulu, kwaye ilahleko yeshishini inciphile.
Ngokuqinisekileyo, kukho abanye abahlalutyi abacinga ukuba impembelelo yokwehla koqoqosho ayithathelwa ngqalelo. U-Ed Morse, intloko yophando lweempahla kwiCitigroup, uthe kule veki ukuba utshintsho olunokwenzeka kwicala leemarike zeempahla, olulandelwa kukwehla koqoqosho kwihlabathi liphela, luya kuba yingozi enkulu kudidi lweempahla.
Kusebusuku bokuhlwa, silinde ukuba imfuno iye ezantsi, ngokutsho kukaYouliao. Ngo-2013, imfuno yaseTshayina yachaphazeleka yibhubhane, ngelixa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okuphezulu kwayicinezela kancinci kancinci imfuno yaphesheya. Nangona imakethi ilindele ukuba isantya sokunyuka kwesantya seFed siza kuncipha, kodwa impembelelo kuqoqosho lokwenyani iya kuvela kancinci kancinci, nto leyo ekhokelela ekuncipheni kokukhula kwemfuno. Ukukhululeka komgaqo-nkqubo wokuthintela ubhubhane waseTshayina kuye kwafaka amandla ekubuyiseleni kwimeko yesiqhelo, kodwa incopho yokuqala yosulelo isenokubangela imiqobo yexesha elifutshane. Ukubuyela kwimeko yesiqhelo eTshayina kusenokuqala kwikota yesibini.
Ixesha lokuthumela: Disemba-22-2022